The expectation-disconfirmation theory (EDT) is one of the most influential frameworks for explaining satisfaction judgments in consumer behavior. Originally developed by Oliver, the theory conceptualizes satisfaction as a post-consumption evaluation resulting from a comparison between prior expectations and perceived performance (Oliver, 1980). Rather than treating satisfaction as a direct response to performance alone, EDT emphasizes the central cognitive role of expectations and their confirmation or disconfirmation through experience.

Within this framework, expectations are defined as pre-consumption beliefs about the likely performance of a product or service. These beliefs are shaped by prior experience, marketing communications, word-of-mouth, and individual characteristics (Oliver, 1977). After consumption, consumers form perceptions of actual performance. Satisfaction does not stem directly from performance, but from the discrepancy between expectations and perceived performance, known as disconfirmation. Positive disconfirmation occurs when perceived performance exceeds expectations, whereas negative disconfirmation arises when performance falls short. When expectations are confirmed, satisfaction is generally moderate and stable (Oliver, 1980).

Disconfirmation operates as a mediating cognitive mechanism between performance perceptions and satisfaction. Empirical work has shown that both expectations and perceived performance exert independent effects on satisfaction, but that disconfirmation remains the most proximal determinant of evaluative responses (Churchill & Surprenant, 1982). Importantly, EDT does not assume that consumers passively accept discrepancies; subsequent research has demonstrated assimilation and asymmetry effects, whereby consumers partially adjust perceptions toward expectations or react more strongly to negative than to positive disconfirmation (Lankton & McKnight, 2012). These refinements reinforce the theory’s explanatory power while remaining consistent with its original cognitive foundations.

Beyond its theoretical importance, EDT has been widely applied in marketing and advertising research. In advertising contexts, promotional messages contribute directly to the formation of expectations prior to consumption. When advertising claims create expectations that are not met by the actual product experience, negative disconfirmation is likely, resulting in dissatisfaction and unfavorable brand evaluations (Chang, 2014). Conversely, advertising that sets realistic or slightly conservative expectations may foster positive disconfirmation, thereby enhancing satisfaction and post-purchase attitudes.

More broadly, EDT has informed research on customer satisfaction management, brand evaluation, service quality, and post-adoption behavior. By highlighting the risks associated with exaggerated claims, the theory provides a robust conceptual basis for aligning communication strategies with actual performance. In this sense, EDT remains a cornerstone of marketing thought, offering a parsimonious yet powerful explanation of how expectations, experiences, and evaluations jointly shape consumer satisfaction.

References

Churchill, G. A., & Surprenant, C. (1982). An investigation into the determinants of customer satisfaction. Journal of Marketing Research, 19(4), 491–504.

Chang, C. (2014). When new commercials do not meet expectations. Journal of Advertising, 43(4), 359–370.

Lankton, N. K., & McKnight, H. D. (2012). Examining two expectation disconfirmation theory models: Assimilation and asymmetry effects. Journal of the Association for Information Systems, 13(2), 1–28.

Oliver, R. L. (1977). Effect of expectation and disconfirmation on postexposure product evaluations. Journal of Applied Psychology, 62(4), 480–486.

Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 17(4), 460–469.